Xeneta has revised its 2026 Air Freight Outlook, citing the continuing impact of the Middle East conflict on global supply chains.
The market intelligence provider now expects shipper long-term rates to increase by 5% to 15% this year. In December 2025, it forecast a 5% to 10% decline.
Xeneta said the change reflects the supply shock caused by the escalation of the conflict on 28 February 2026.
The disruption removed 12% of global air cargo capacity overnight. As a result, global air cargo capacity grew by only 1% in the first half of 2026.
Demand continued to strengthen. Global air cargo demand increased 4% during the same period. That exceeded Xeneta’s original full-year forecast of 2% to 3%.
The supply-demand imbalance pushed rates higher. Combined spot and long-term air freight rates rose 17% year-on-year in the first half of the year.
“On 27 February I would have bet on the Netherlands winning the World Cup before I put money on air rates jumping 40%,” said Niall van de Wouw, Chief Airfreight Officer at Xeneta. “Spot rates are now plateauing, but they are not falling.”
Xeneta expects demand growth to ease in the second half of 2026 as capacity gradually recovers. The company also expects capacity growth to reach the lower end of its revised 2% to 3% forecast.
The report highlights another major shift in demand.
Shipments linked to artificial intelligence continue to grow rapidly. Global semiconductor sales jumped 106% year-on-year in April 2026, the strongest increase since records began in 1986. Although AI-related goods account for less than 10% of global air cargo volumes, they now drive demand on the Transpacific trade.
At the same time, e-commerce demand continues to weaken. China’s low-value and e-commerce exports fell 7% year-on-year in May 2026, marking the sixth consecutive monthly decline. Xeneta also pointed to the European Union’s new import rules for low-value parcels as another factor slowing e-commerce growth.
Van de Wouw said AI is replacing e-commerce as the main growth driver for air freight.
He also warned that geopolitical uncertainty remains the biggest risk for the market.
“If Dubai can be closed by rockets, what else is possible?” he said. “There will be another wildcard and it will come at a cost for shippers.”
