The latest container freight readings point to a change in market momentum, with Transpacific gains slowing considerably while Asia-Europe rates continue to fall.
Global benchmarks also moved lower. Drewry’s World Container Index (WCI) and the Freightos Baltic Index (FBX) both declined 1%, while the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) edged lower. The China Containerized Freight Index (CCFI), however, recorded a modest increase.
Chinese freight indexes send mixed signals
The SCFI declined 0.66% to 3,662.30 points from 3,686.62 in the previous reading.
The broader CCFI moved in the opposite direction, increasing around 0.3% to 1,923.93 points from 1,917.68.
No new Ningbo Containerized Freight Index (NCFI) reading was published due to China’s National Day holiday period. As a result, the previous NCFI reading has not been treated as a new weekly observation.
The latest Chinese benchmarks therefore offer a mixed picture, with the SCFI easing while the CCFI remained slightly positive.
NYFI shows Transpacific gains slowing
The latest NYSHEX Freight Index (NYFI) readings show that the strong Transpacific increases recorded during September have moderated.
Asia-US West Coast increased 1.89% to 7,557.37. Although still positive, the increase was considerably smaller than the 4.82% rise recorded in the previous reading.
Asia-US East Coast was almost unchanged, edging up just 0.03% to 9,695.31 after increasing 5.75% previously.
Asia-North Europe maintained its downward direction, falling another 3.58% to 3,468.58.
The Transatlantic market moved higher in both directions. Westbound increased 9.20% to 2,723.29, while eastbound climbed 7.25% to 1,184.57.
Drewry confirms continued Asia-Europe weakness
Drewry’s WCI declined 1% to US$4,434 per 40-foot container in its latest assessment.
Shanghai-Los Angeles was broadly unchanged at US$7,835 per 40-foot container, while Shanghai-New York increased 1% to US$10,428.
Rates from Asia to Europe continued to decline. Shanghai-Rotterdam fell 2% to US$3,399, while Shanghai-Genoa dropped 3% to US$3,702.
The readings broadly reinforce the pattern visible in NYFI. Transpacific rates remain firm but are no longer recording the strong weekly increases seen during September, while Asia-Europe continues to weaken.
According to Drewry, Asia-Europe spot rates have now declined for 12 consecutive weeks.
FBX extends decline
The FBX Global Container Freight Index declined another 1% to US$3,343.
The latest fall follows the previous week’s 1% decrease to US$3,380.40, extending the gradual downward movement in the global benchmark.
Together with the decline in the WCI and the modest fall in the SCFI, the latest FBX reading points to softer conditions at global level.
What the freight indexes are telling us
The latest readings suggest that the divergence seen during September is beginning to change shape.
Transpacific rates remain comparatively firm, but their weekly gains have slowed significantly. NYFI’s Asia-US West Coast increase moderated from 4.82% to 1.89%, while Asia-US East Coast moved from a 5.75% gain to virtually no change.
Drewry provides a similar signal. Shanghai-Los Angeles was broadly unchanged, while Shanghai-New York increased only 1%.
Europe remains the clearer weak spot. NYFI’s Asia-North Europe reading fell another 3.58%, while Drewry recorded further declines to both Rotterdam and Genoa.
The longer-term NYFI movement is particularly notable. Asia-North Europe has fallen from 4,603.04 in early August to 3,468.58 in the latest reading, representing a decline of approximately 25%.
Meanwhile, the global benchmarks are also leaning lower. Both WCI and FBX declined 1%, while SCFI edged down and CCFI registered only a modest increase.
The different indexes use different methodologies and reporting schedules, so their absolute values are not directly comparable. Taken together, however, their direction shows that the strong Transpacific gains recorded during September have moderated while downward pressure on Asia-Europe remains firmly in place.
What to watch next
The period following China’s Golden Week will be important in determining whether the slowdown in Transpacific gains is temporary or develops into a broader downward movement.
Drewry noted that Transpacific demand remained resilient ahead of the holiday period. However, the Golden Week shutdown and changes in available capacity could affect the next round of spot-rate readings.
Asia-Europe faces a different set of pressures. Drewry has highlighted increasing effective capacity as more vessels transit the Suez Canal, with Suez transits in Week 39 reported 68% higher year on year. This additional capacity could maintain pressure on rates even as carriers manage supply through blank sailings.
The next readings should therefore provide a clearer indication of whether Transpacific rates stabilize after Golden Week and whether Asia-Europe can break its extended downward trend.
