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MABUX global bunker indices show irregular changes

In Week 21, the MABUX global bunker indices exhibited irregular changes with no clear trend. The 380 HSFO index saw a minor decrease of US$0.13 to US$544.13/MT.

The VLSFO index declined by US$2.53 to US$654.27/MT. Conversely, the MGO index increased by US$3.63 to US$842.18/MT.

"At the time of writing, a steady downward trend was observed in the global bunker market," stated a MABUX official.

The MABUX Global Scrubber Spread (SS) - the price difference between 380 HSFO and VLSFO - experienced a moderate decline, dropping by US$2.40 to US$110.14 and is gradually approaching the US$100.00 mark (SS Breakeven).

The weekly average also decreased by US$0.95. Conversely, in Rotterdam, the SS Spread increased by US$8.00 to US$94.00, moving towards the US$100.00 mark. The port's weekly average increased by US$1.17.

In Singapore, the 380 HSFO/VLSFO price differential unexpectedly narrowed by US$19.00, dropping to US$85.00, falling below the US$100 mark, with the weekly average down by US$5.67. Overall, the SS Spread dynamics remain without a clear trend.

"In the near future, we expect a further reduction in SS Spread to levels below US$100 SS Breakeven," stated a MABUX spokesperson.

In April 2024, global LNG imports reached a record high of 34.52 million metric tons (Mt), representing a 1.7% increase (0.58 Mt) compared to the previous year. This surge was driven primarily by the Asia Pacific and LAC regions, which offset a significant decline in European LNG imports. From January to April 2024, global LNG imports grew by 2.9% (3.98 Mt) year-on-year, reaching a total of 142.52 Mt. During Week 21, the European gas benchmark TTF continued its moderate rise, increasing by 3.335 EUR/MWh to 33.004 EUR/MWh from 29.669 EUR/MWh the previous week.

The price of LNG as bunker fuel in the port of Sines (Portugal) continued its upward trend, reaching US$728/MT on 20 May, an increase of US$32 compared to the previous week. Meanwhile, the price difference between LNG and conventional fuel on 20 May decreased to US$89 in favour of LNG, down from US$117 the previous week. On the same day, MGO LS was quoted at US$817/MT in the port of Sines.

In Week 21, the MDI index (the correlation ratio of market bunker prices (MABUX MBP Index) vs. MABUX digital bunker benchmark (MABUX DBP Index)) showed the following trends across major world hubs: Rotterdam, Singapore, Fujairah, and Houston:

In the 380 HSFO segment, all selected ports were in the undercharge zone. Weekly averages fell by 3 points in Singapore and 2 points in Fujairah but rose by 5 points in Houston. The MDI index in Rotterdam remained unchanged.

In the VLSFO segment, all ports remained undervalued according to the MDI. Weekly averages increased by 4 points in Singapore and 3 points in Houston, while they decreased by 2 points in Rotterdam and 1 point in Fujairah. Fujairah's indices maintained a 100% correlation between the market price and the MABUX digital benchmark.

In the MGO LS segment, Houston was the only overvalued port, with the weekly average rising by 2 points, keeping the index near the 100% correlation mark between the market price and the MABUX digital benchmark. All other ports were undervalued. Average weekly margins declined further by 6 points in Rotterdam but increased by 5 points in Singapore and 2 points in Fujairah. The MDI index in Singapore exceeded the US$100 mark again.

At the end of the week, the balance of overvalued and undervalued ports across all market segments remained unchanged, with underpricing continuing to be the prevailing trend.

"We expect a downward trend to prevail in the global bunker market next week," stated Sergey Ivanov, Director, MABUX.

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