Will Ethereum surpass Bitcoin if on-chain activity improves?

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Ethereum and Bitcoin are racing for market supremacy again, as price forecasts shed light on the altcoin. However, predictions take into account a variety of factors, from ETF flows to on-chain activity across all cryptocurrency instruments. At the same time, some investors are excited about Ethereum’s return, since Bitcoin has already had a great end of the year by reaching a new all-time high, and, with a bit of luck, getting to $100,000 again.

The relationship between Bitcoin and Ethereum is among the most interesting, as ETH/BTC prices are highly correlated. As Bitcoin drives market dynamics, Ethereum and other altcoins tend to follow its lead. On the other hand, when their value surpasses Bitcoin’s, a new wave of technological developments arises.

So, while they are related and can move in the same or opposite directions, Ethereum still had its glorious moments when it overtook Bitcoin. Is this a good time to learn how to buy Bitcoin, or should you go with the blockchain-oriented Ether coin? Let’s find out. 

Ethereum continues to evolve

Ethereum’s roadmap has made considerable progress for the underlying technology, and in 2026, it will continue to do so. The plan for this year is to address privacy and data issues through the ZK-EVM (zero-knowledge Ethereum Virtual Machine) and BAL (Balancer) features. These systems will help lower the entry barrier for full nodes and provide them with tools to verify data authenticity using the light client Elios.

Along with these innovations, the roadmap will address the social recovery of wallets and time locks to prevent users from losing funds. That’s why privacy and censorship resistance will be enhanced in Ethereum, reducing the need for centralized servers and supporting the evolution of on-chain application interfaces.

Currently, the Fusaka update within the roadmap is in production, and its main features include:

  • Efficient data availability for rollups;
  • Fast adaptation to L2 scalability needs;
  • Gas limits and DoS hardening;

Bitcoin will experience a high volatility moment

Although predictions state Bitcoin will reach new highs, it may be volatile at those new prices. However, there are plenty of other reasons for Bitcoin’s performance at the beginning of the year, such as the following:

  • The market goes through a typical reset after the holidays, triggering breakouts after institutions, funds, and whales slow down;
  • The seasonality of the first quarter is always an impediment for crypto investors, making it a pattern most are used to;
  • The new regulations imposed along with tariffs and other economic challenges have an effect on the crypto market based on the positive or negative news;

Before listening to predictions, investors must exercise caution and conduct their own research on market indicators. Looking for support/resistance levels, the ETF weekly flows, and the Fear & Greed Index is necessary to re-allocate assets in your portfolio based on your risk tolerance and goals.

An altcoin season might pop out of nowhere

When an altcoin season is trending, all the coins besides Bitcoin perform well enough to overcome its value. Currently, experts suggest momentum is building up, so investors should be prepared for an eventual new season. The signs are as follows:

  • Bitcoin’s price and dominance slow down, pushing liquidity into altcoins;
  • As liquidity turns into altcoins, the number of active buyers and sellers increases;
  • With more money flowing in, on-chain activity and developer growth boost;

Although timing the altcoin season can be difficult, investors should analyze market evolution and seize opportunities when multiple indicators align. When conditions like stablecoin inflows and a drop in Bitcoin dominance overlap, it might be time to readjust the portfolio. However, this doesn’t mean ditching Bitcoin; it’s still the foundation of any stable portfolio, but rather means pairing it with the right altcoins.

The AI bubble might affect the ETH BTC relationship

The rise of investments in artificial intelligence might have affected cryptocurrency in several ways. Since the technology was more interesting and lucrative to invest in, crypto coins lost interest. However, a blend of the two industries led to the creation of AI-based cryptocurrencies that leveraged blockchain technology through automated features.

This year, the crypto AI sector will expand towards more real-world industries and institutions, focusing on digital commerce:

  • Pilot programs of self-managing digital assets in AI wallets are being elevated;
  • Businesses backed by venture capital invest in AI and crypto startups;
  • Blockchain protocols like Solana and Polygon integrate an AI interface for their digital wallets;

2026 will be the year of balance-sheet strength for existing cash flows. As AI-facilitated products and services increase in value and regulatory clarity allows companies to operate at scale, including in artificial intelligence and cryptocurrency, might be the best move to keep both sectors productive.

How to prepare for a full year of changes

2026 might be one of the most complex years to navigate for the cryptocurrency industry, especially for Bitcoin, which might encounter some bumps in value. Regardless, the usual advice will always be useful, which includes:

  • Diversification: invest in a vast array of cryptocurrencies across different industries, from DeFi to AI;
  • Research: stay up-to-date with the latest news, blockchain updates, and regulations to know what to expect;
  • Have a strategy: always rely on investment methods like dollar-cost-averaging for maximum safety;

No matter how the market changes, investing for the long-term is usually the best way to avoid massive losses and protect your portfolio. Still, short-term investors or traders must take all precautions necessary to navigate the risks of volatility in assets like meme coins or newly developed AI tokens. At the same time, taking account of forecasts without blindly following them might help some investors increase their exposure to beneficial assets.

Conclusion

With a new year rolling in, crypto enthusiasts expect Bitcoin’s dominance to take a break, allowing Ethereum to kick off the altcoin season and drive technological momentum in the first quarter. Several factors, such as the ongoing evolution of Ethereum’s roadmap and the AI bubble, could lead Bitcoin to enter a slower phase, especially given its recent highs. Still, users must be careful about what they follow and choose to protect their portfolios with systematic diversification and strategic moves.