It is a widely held industry perception that high Asia-NAWC spot rates often result in an influx of smaller niche carriers, while low spot rates lead to their withdrawal from the market. The recent strong increases in spot rates imply that we are about to see a new flurry of non‑alliance services launched on Asia‑North America West Coast.
To test this hypothesis, we examined the correlation between spot rate changes and the share of container vessel capacity offered on non‑alliance liner services. Because spot rate changes take time to translate into the operational execution of a new service, Sea‑Intelligence tested the correlation with lead times ranging from 0-26 weeks. Utilising a 4‑week rolling average, the data reveals a strong correlation of 83% with a 15‑week lag time.
Figure 1 illustrates the actual development of the non‑alliance capacity share versus a calculated model of capacity share, which predicts non‑alliance capacity based purely on spot rates. Overall, the model tracks quite well with actual market developments. In the most recent period, the actual non‑alliance capacity share has been tracking slightly below the modelled level, remaining roughly 5% lower, since the new alliance structures launched in early 2025.
Furthermore, the model shows a large spike approaching September 2026. If spot rates remain elevated, and the link between spot rates and non‑alliance share holds true, we should expect announcements of new Asia‑NAWC services from either non‑alliance carriers, or alliance carriers launching independent services outside the scope of their alliances.
