After reconfiguring liner networks to incorporate the round-of-Africa routing, Sea-Intelligence’s standard model for estimating demand in TEU*Miles was used to assess the potential impact in 2024.
In 2023, global TEU*Miles amounted to 860 billion. Transitioning to a scenario where the same volume of cargo is transported worldwide in 2024 but with a diversion around Cape of Good Hope it would lead to a projected demand of 994 billion TEU Miles. This represents a 16% increase.
“As we can see from Figure 1, the Europe-Indian Subcontinent trade is by far the most impacted. The trade between the Far East and North America is the least impacted overall, but this is because the impact is volume-weighted, and of course, the distances from the Far East to US West Coast are not impacted and neither is the distance from the Far East to US East Coast via Panama,” stated Alan Murphy, CEO of Sea-Intelligence.
According to Sea Intelligence, the 16% rise in global TEU*Miles necessitates a corresponding 16% increase in capacity. Carriers can accommodate this surge through two primary mechanisms:
- Firstly, by absorbing the existing surplus capacity, which is expected to exacerbate with the delivery of more capacity throughout 2024
- Secondly, by accelerating vessel speeds to enable the same vessel capacity to transport more TEU miles annually
Currently, both mechanisms are in effect. It is anticipated that in 2024, the ongoing injection of additional capacity will likely be utilized to somewhat decelerate existing vessels.
