Trans-Pacific container flows are entering a period of structural turbulence. The Port of Los Angeles processed roughly 812 000 TEUs in January 2026 — a 12% year-over-year decline and the lowest monthly throughput in nearly three years. More than 110 trade policy and tariff decisions hit the market in 2025 alone, each one rerouting cargo and reshaping lane economics. Against this backdrop, digital interfaces like AiDeliv are redefining how BCOs manage spot rate exposure through algorithmic, competitively priced auctions.
Port of Los Angeles volumes aren’t declining in isolation. The Port of Long Beach reported a 14.9% year-over-year drop in October 2025 — down to 839 671 TEUs — compared to a record-setting October 2024. Containerized exports to China fell 26% last year. Soybean shipments from Los Angeles to China collapsed by 80%. These numbers point to a fundamental shift in Trans-Pacific trade, one that demands a different approach to freight procurement.
Why Static Contracts Are Losing
The traditional 12-month ocean freight contract is built on predictability. In 2026, predictability is gone. Xeneta data shows Far East–to–U.S. West Coast spot rates dropped to $1 889 per FEU by the third week of February, down from $2 052 just one week prior. The East Coast lane fell to $2 688 from $2 882. In the mid-low market segment — where larger volume shippers operate — pricing plunged 18% in a single month, with the market average down 11.5%.
Most General Rate Increase attempts in 2025 didn’t hold past one or two sailings. Honour Lane Shipping reports that current rate levels have “fallen close to or even below” carrier break-even points across all lanes to the U.S. and Canada. Carriers responded with aggressive capacity cuts: blank sailings reached 60% on Asia–Pacific Southwest routes, 58% on Asia–Pacific Northwest, and 50% on Asia–U.S. East Coast.
Tariff volatility 2026 turns fixed annual contracts into an unpredictable liability. Drewry estimates that a return of shipping through the Suez Canal could push contract rates down an additional 30–35%. BCOs locked in at peak levels find themselves overpaying for months. Those relying solely on spot exposure face swings with every policy announcement. The market needs a third option — one built on real-time price discovery.
Reverse Auctions as a Pricing Stabilizer
The reverse auction process offers a way out of this bind. Shippers post a freight request; carriers compete to win the auction by lowering their bids. The result isn’t an analyst’s forecast or a single carrier’s offer. It’s market-driven rates, determined by real-time supply and demand.
In a buyer’s market — and 2026 is exactly that — this model proves particularly effective. Fleet capacity is growing at 3.2% while global port handling rises just 1.5%. Carriers are motivated to fight for every container. A freight exchange interface turns that imbalance into a shipper’s advantage: the more participants bidding, the more accurately the final rate reflects actual market conditions.
| Metric | Traditional Model (Fixed Contract) | Auction-Based Model (Reverse Auction) |
| Price Discovery | Once per 12 months, at signing | Real-time, with every shipment request |
| Adaptation to Blank Sailings | None until contract renegotiation | Automatic through competitive bidding |
| Landed Cost Transparency | Limited — hidden surcharges | Full — landed cost optimization built in |
| Response to Tariff Changes | Weeks or months to renegotiate | Hours — new auction under updated terms |
| Overpayment Risk in Falling Market | High — rate is locked | Minimal — rate reflects current demand |
Operational Agility Through Shipment Aggregation
Shipment aggregation — bundling multiple consignments into a single lot — keeps container load factors high and per-TEU costs low, even as trade routes shift. Under this model, carriers on the platform deliver cargo pooled from multiple shippers, giving each one access to volume-level pricing.
Route redirection is the defining structural trend of the year. Four key drivers:
- Tariff pressure on Chinese imports. China’s share of imports through the Port of Los Angeles dropped from 60% in 2018 to 40% by early 2026. Container volumes from China continue to decline under active Section 301 duties.
- Southeast Asian sourcing growth. U.S. imports from Vietnam rose 17.8% year over year, Thailand surged 36.5%, and Indonesia climbed 18% — partially offsetting the China decline (Descartes, January 2026 data).
- Nearshoring through Mexico. Mexican ports are handling growing container volumes as manufacturing relocates. But Mexico imposed its own duties in January 2026 — ranging from 5% to 50% on imports from non-FTA countries — complicating landed cost calculations.
- Potential Suez Canal resumption. CMA CGM and Maersk are evaluating a return to the route. Shorter voyage times would release capacity back into the system, adding further downward pressure on rates.
The Interface-First Approach
“U.S. trade policy remains largely uncertain, and I expect that to continue… American farmers and manufacturers need to remain competitive in global markets. They simply can’t afford to lose more ground.”
— Gene Seroka, Executive Director, Port of Los Angeles (February 2026)
That uncertainty isn’t a temporary anomaly. It’s the operating environment for the 2026–2030 trade cycle. Locking in rates for a year, relying on a single carrier, manually renegotiating every surcharge — these tools were designed for a stable market that no longer exists. Shippers building their procurement strategy around a freight exchange interface with reverse auctions, shipment aggregation, and full landed cost transparency don’t just cut costs. They gain the ability to adapt to each new tariff decision in real time, not months later through renegotiation. When 110 trade policy moves per year become the norm, that speed of adaptation is what separates the shippers who protect their margins from those who watch them erode.
