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Market Analysis: Container rates on trades out of India continue to soften amid weakening demand

Container freight rates on the main trades out of India have continued to cool in September as the pace of exports slowed, according to an analysis of market data by Container News.

On the westbound India-Europe trade, average spot rates for loads from West India [Jawaharlal Nehru Port (JNPT)/Nhava Sheva or Mundra Port] to Felixstowe/London Gateway (UK) or Rotterdam in April have decreased to US$4,100 per 20-foot container and US$4,300 per 40-foot container, from US$4,800 and US$5,000, respectively, at the end of August.

For West India-Genoa (the West Mediterranean) bookings, TEU rates have dropped to US$4,000/TEU, from US$4,800, and US$4,200/FEU rates, from US$4,600/FEU, the CN analysis shows.

However, eastbound cargo (imports into India) rates for these port pairings have ticked up month on month. Spot rates for bookings from Felixstowe/London Gateway or Rotterdam to West India have stood at US$1,200/TEU and US$1,500/FEU, from US$1,100 and US$1,350/FEU, respectively, reported at the end of August.

For trades from the West Mediterranean (Genoa) to West India, July rates have relatively stood steady at US$1,000/TEU or FEU.

Spot prices on the India-US East Coast trades have sunk in September from the highs seen through July.  Average rates for shipments from West India (Nhava Sheva/Mundra) to the US East Coast (New York) have fallen to US$5,100/TEU and US$5,200/FEU, from US$8,000 and US$9,000 month-on-month. For Indian container loads moving to the US West Coast (Los Angeles), rates have also declined significantly – down to US$5,300/TEU and US$6,300/FEU, from US$6,000 and US$7,000, respectively, reported at the end of August.

Similarly, for the West India-US Gulf Coast (Houston) trades, average August rates have decreased to US$5,400/TEU and US$5,600/FEU, from US$8,000 per dry container a month ago, according to the CN analysis.

Rates on the US East Coast-West India trades (return leg) have ticked up month-on-month, hovering at US$650/TEU and US$1,000/FEU, versus US$550 and US$750, respectively, in August.  From US West Coast to West India, however, booking rates have dropped to US$1,300/TEU and US$1,900/FEU, from US$1,900 and US$3,200, respectively, a month ago.

Average rates from the US Gulf Coast to West India have seen modest gains from August averages –up to US$1,300/TEU and US$2,000/FEU, from US$1,200 and US$1,900, respectively.

Carrier rates on intra-Asia trades out of India have continued to be in negative territory, on most port pairings, the CN analysis found.  For West India-Yantian (South China), the analysis put average rates in April at US$30/TEU and US$40/FEU, and for West India-Tianjin (North China), carriers are accepting bookings at as low as US$5/TEU and US$10/FEU.

For West India-Shanghai (Central China) trades, rates have also remained in negative territory, at as low as US$5 per TEU or FEU.

Also, for West India loads to Singapore, carriers are also accepting bookings at as low as US$5/TEU or FEU.

September rates for West India-Jebel Ali (Dubai) bookings have weakened month on month, to US$550/TEU, from US$625, and US$1,050/FEU, from US$1,200.

Meanwhile, India’s merchandise export trade by value fell 9% in August, after a streak of monthly gains in the new fiscal year 2024-25 that began in April.  According to provisional government data, total goods exports by value amounted to US$34.71 billion.

The Federation of Indian Export Organisations (FIEO) said market conditions remain challenging for exports due to high shipping costs and supply chain disruptions.

“Some of the exporters have diverted to the domestic market as profitability in exports has taken a hit with sharp increases in international freight rates (both ship and air),” FIEO president Ashwani Kumar said in a statement.

Kumar also noted: “Had it not been these trade disruptions led by logistical challenges, such as a lack of shipping space, irregular shipping schedule, ships skipping Indian ports and declining commodity prices, the merchandise exports would have recorded positive growth in exports.”

He went on to add: “We are optimistic of better growth numbers with improved demand coming in from the European Union, the UK, West Asia and the US in months to come, which will not only further give a boost to the overall order bookings but also to the labour-intensive sectors of exports.”

According to FIEO: “The urgent and immediate need of the hour is to take steps on the liquidity front with deeper interest subvention support and extension of interest equalisation scheme for at least five years, creating a predictable business environment for the exporters.”

The association also appealed: “The government should also look at facilitating trade through easy and low cost of credit, marketing support and conclusion of some of the key FTAs [free trade agreements] with the UK, Peru and Oman soon, which FIEO have been urging to the government for quite some time now.”


Jenny Daniel
Global Correspondent

Contact email: [email protected]





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