"At the time of writing, the market was in a slight downtrend,” commented a MABUX official.
In Week 10, the Global Scrubber Spread (SS) - the price differential between 380 HSFO and VLSFO - showed a moderate drop, falling to US$178.
At the same time, the weekly average dropped by US$4. In Rotterdam, the SS Spread dropped by US$3 to US$162, while the weekly average rose by US$16. The 380 HSFO/VLSFO price differential in Singapore was the most significant: minus US$20, falling to US$145. The monthly average dropped by US$22.
"We expect that SS Spread still remains some potential for contraction next week,” noted a MABUX official.
The Energy Information Administration (EIA) has lowered its natural gas price estimate for 2023 and 2024. The EIA now predicts that natural gas prices will average US$3 per MMBtu this year, an 11.2% decrease from its prior estimate of US$3.4 per MMBtu. According to the EIA, natural petrol costs will average US$6.4 per MMBtu in 2022. The EIA has also reduced its forecast for natural gas costs for next year to US$4 per MMBtu, down from its prior estimate of US$4 per MMBtu.
On 7 March, the price of LNG as a bunker fuel at the port of Sines in Portugal continued its downtrend, reaching US$962/MT. On 7 March, the price differential between LNG and conventional fuel was only US$43 with MGO LS at the port of Sines listing at US$919/MT.
"The price difference at the moment is almost levelled. We expect LNG price to continue downtrend next week,” said a MABUX official.
The MDI index (correlation of MABUX market bunker prices (MBP Index) vs MABUX digital bunker benchmark (DBP Index)) kept fuel 380 HSFO underestimated in all four chosen locations during the tenth week of 2023. The estimated weekly average widened in Rotterdam and Houston to -US$107 and -US$66, respectively but narrowed in Singapore and Fujairah to -US$77 and -US$107.
According to MDI, the three chosen locations in the VLSFO sector - Rotterdam, Singapore, and Fujairah - are undervalued by -US$54, -US$23, and -US$30, respectively. The monthly average underestimation at three ports shifted irregularly. Houston stayed the only overpriced port in this fuel category - with a +US$16, the overpricing rate has been cut in half.
The MGO LS segment has three underestimated ports: Rotterdam, Singapore, and Houston. The weekly average underpricing premium in Rotterdam and Singapore increased moderately to US$94 and US$101, respectively, but dropped to US$54 in Houston. Fujairah stayed the only port that was overpriced - +US$155.
"The global bunker market remains relatively stable. We expect global bunker indices to keep irregular fluctuations next week," stated Sergey Ivanov, director of MABUX.