At the end of the 10th week of the year, the Marine Bunker Exchange (MABUX) indices continued their downward trend.
The 380 HSFO index dropped by US$12.33 to US$500.92/MT, the VLSFO index declined by US$16.57 to US$585.85/MT and the MGO index decreased by US$17.28 to US$774.24/MT.
“At the time of writing, the moderate decline in the global bunker market was ongoing,” stated a MABUX official.
The MABUX Global Scrubber Spread (SS) – the price difference between 380 HSFO and VLSFO – continued its downward movement, reducing by US$4.24, staying well below the US$100 breakeven point. The weekly average of this index also saw a decline of US$5.72.
In Rotterdam, the SS Spread fell by US$14 to US$63, with the weekly average in the port decreasing by US$1.34. In Singapore, the price difference between 380 HSFO and VLSFO also continued to shrink, dropping by US$8 to US$45. On 3 March, it even briefly dipped below the US$40 mark. The weekly average in the port declined by US$17.
As a result, the Global SS Spread maintains its consistent downward trajectory, gradually reducing the profitability of the VLSFO+Scrubber combination in favor of conventional VLSFO fuel.
The premium on natural gas for European deliveries this summer over futures prices for next winter has eased in recent days due to milder temperatures and ongoing talks to end the conflict in Ukraine. Typically, winter gas prices exceed summer prices. However, since early 2025, cooler temperatures and rapidly depleting European gas supplies have pushed summer futures higher, as Europe now faces the need to buy significantly more gas to replenish storage. Despite this, the current premium makes summer stockpiling uneconomical. Utilities and market operators in key European economies, including Germany, have urged governments to provide support for rebuilding natural gas reserves ahead of the 2025/2026 winter.
As of 4 March, European regional storage facilities were 37.63% full, reflecting a 2.67% decrease from the previous week and a substantial 33.70% drop since the start of the year. The gas withdrawal process remains ongoing. By the end of the 10th week, the European gas benchmark TTF saw its decline slow, falling by 0.827 euro/MWh, yet staying well below the 50.00 euro/MWh threshold. It settled at 43.464 euro/MWh, down from 44.291 euro/MWh the previous week.
The price of LNG as a bunker fuel in Portugal’s port of Sines continued its decline, dropping by US$80 compared to the previous week and reaching US$869/MT on 3 March.
Meanwhile, the price gap between LNG and conventional fuel narrowed, standing at US$124 in favor of MGO LS, down from US$177 the week before. On the same day, MGO LS was quoted at US$745/MT in Sines. More detailed insights can be found in the LNG Bunkering section on mabux.com.
By the end of the 10th week, the MABUX Market Differential Index (MDI)—which compares market bunker prices (MBP) to the MABUX digital bunker benchmark (DBP)—showed mixed trends across the four major global hubs: Rotterdam, Singapore, Fujairah, and Houston.
- 380 HSFO segment: Rotterdam entered the overvalued zone, aligning with Singapore. The MDI weekly average rose by 2 points in Rotterdam but fell by 3 points in Singapore. Fujairah and Houston remained undervalued, with Fujairah’s level dropping by 4 points, while Houston experienced a 3-point increase. Notably, Rotterdam’s MDI remained close to the 100% correlation mark between MBP and DBP.
- VLSFO segment: Rotterdam remained the only overvalued port, with its average MDI increasing by 2 points. Conversely, Singapore, Fujairah, and Houston remained undervalued, with their weekly average MDI rising by 18, 14, and 10 points, respectively.
- MGO LS segment: Rotterdam moved into the overvalued category as its MDI climbed by 15 points. The other three ports remained undervalued, with weekly MDI averages dropping by 1 point in Singapore, 11 points in Fujairah, and 5 points in Houston. Rotterdam maintained its 100% MBP/DBP correlation, while Fujairah once again fell below the US$100.00 threshold.
“We anticipate that the moderate downtrend in the global bunker market will continue into next week,” commented Sergey Ivanov, Director of MABUX.
