During the 50th week of the year, the Marine Bunker Exchange (MABUX) global indices experienced a moderate decline.
The 380 HSFO index dropped by US$4.76 to US$510.31/MT, edging closer to the US$500.00 threshold. The VLSFO index fell by US$3.98 to US$584.96/MT. Similarly, the MGO index saw a decrease of US$5.20 to US$746.75/MT.
“At the time of writing, no clear trend was observed in the global bunker market, with indices exhibiting mixed movements,” stated a MABUX official.
The MABUX Global Scrubber Spread (SS), which represents the price difference between 380 HSFO and VLSFO, showed a slight increase of US$0.78 to US$74.65, remaining well below the breakeven mark of US$100. However, the weekly average of the index declined by US$1.23.
In Rotterdam, the SS Spread experienced a significant rise of US$14 to US$56, while the weekly average in the port fell by US$2.83.
Meanwhile, in Singapore, the 380 HSFO/VLSFO price gap widened by US$2 to US$87, with the weekly average in the port gaining US$7.83. Throughout the week, the SS Spread remained under US$100 and exhibited no clear directional trend.
“We expect the irregular changes in SS Spread to persist next week,” stated a MABUX representative.
Natural gas withdrawals from storage in Europe are occurring at their fastest pace in six years, driven by persistent winter weather and low temperatures, which have hindered efforts to reduce reliance on hydrocarbons. Since the start of the official winter season on 1 October, gas storage levels in the European Union and the United Kingdom have decreased by 83 terawatt hours.
This marks the fastest withdrawal rate since 2016 and is more than four times the average for the past decade. Despite the sharp decline, storage levels are still considered comfortable but are notably lower than during the last two winters. As of 9 December, European regional storage facilities were 81.54% full (down 3.08% from last week), and gas extraction continues. At the end of the 50th week of 2024, the European gas benchmark TTF showed a moderate decline: minus 3.005 Euros/MWh (45.552 euros/MWh versus 48.557 Euros/MWh last week).
The price of LNG as a bunker fuel at the port of Sines, Portugal, declined by US$43 over the week, falling to US$965/MT on 10 December and dipping below the US$1,000/MT threshold.
At the same time, the price gap between LNG and conventional fuel narrowed to US$248 in favour of MGO LS, down from US$270 the previous week. On 10 December, MGO LS was priced at US$717/MT at the port of Sines.
During Week 50, the MABUX Market Differential Index (MDI), which compares market bunker prices (MBP Index) with the MABUX digital bunker benchmark (DBP Index), indicated underpricing for all bunker fuel types across major hubs: Rotterdam, Singapore, Fujairah, and Houston.
- 380 HSFO segment: The weekly average underpricing decreased by 1 point in Rotterdam but increased by 8 points in Singapore, Fujairah, and Houston. The MDI in Rotterdam remained close to a 100% correlation between the market price and the MABUX digital benchmark.
- VLSFO segment: Underpricing rose by 2 points in Rotterdam and 6 points in Fujairah, while it fell by 6 points in Houston. In Singapore, the MDI remained steady near the 100% correlation mark between MBP and DBP.
- MGO LS segment: The average undervaluation widened by 2 points in Rotterdam, 5 points in Singapore, and 4 points in Houston, but narrowed by 8 points in Fujairah. In Singapore, the MDI fell below the US$100 mark, whereas Rotterdam stayed above it.
The overall balance between overvalued and undervalued ports showed little change during the week, with underpricing recorded across all ports. This trend is expected to persist in the coming week.
“We expect the global bunker market to see a moderate upward correction next week,
although multidirectional fluctuations across bunker indices will likely continue,” stated Sergey Ivanov, Director of MABUX.
