For decades, the Caspian Sea has been a rare calm in Eurasia’s turbulent geopolitical waters.
Enclosed by Russia, Azerbaijan, Iran, Kazakhstan, and Turkmenistan, its shipping lanes have moved oil, grain, and manufactured goods without the kind of naval friction seen in the Black Sea or the Red Sea. That stability may be under threat.
Tensions between Azerbaijan and Russia over a little-known maritime dispute are rising at a time when the region is already feeling the knock-on effects of the war in Ukraine. Even a minor incident perhaps triggered by further Ukrainian strikes on Russian assets could have outsized consequences.
The Caspian is the maritime heart of the International North–South Transport Corridor, a strategic link between Russia and Iran that bypasses Western sanctions chokepoints.
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