Ocean Network Express (ONE) announced an aggressive midterm plan on 19 March to grow its operated fleet to 3 million TEUs by 2030, representing a 66% growth from its current fleet at an annualised growth rate of 10% per year.
The plan will demand capital investments of US$25 billion and a further US$10 billion in associated assets over the next five years, which could also include the transfer of some of the assets from its three shareholders, NYK, MOL and K Line.
ONE’s move represents a “belated attempt” to regain market share, after successive years of sub-par growth, according to Linerlytica, which said that since the announcement of the magenta-colored ocean carrier formation in 2016, the consolidated Japanese shipping company has grown its fleet by just 30% in the last seven years compared to market growth of 40% over the same period.
“These attempts by straggling carriers to play catch-up would further worsen the supply-demand imbalance over the coming years, with the next moves by other laggards including Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd to be watched closely,” pointed out Linerlytica.
Meanwhile, the global container ship fleet reached 29 million TEUs last week as new vessel deliveries continued to enter the market with close to 200,000 TEUs delivered over the past month compared to just 2,200 TEUs that were scrapped.
“Despite the rapid fleet growth, charter rates have continued to rise with carriers undeterred by the recent freight rate correction with several still eyeing market share growth,” noted Linerlytica, adding that ONE’s midterm plan can only be achieved by doubling their current orderbook, with other laggard carriers also expected to follow.
The box lines are planning rate increases in April after two unsuccessful attempts in March, with Asia-Europe freight futures rebounding by 10-25% last week. However, capacity utilisation levels need to pick up quickly for the rate increase to stick with market conviction remaining muted, noted Linerlytica.
