Analysts in the market agree, for once, that freight rates on the transpacific have peaked as the flood of capacity returned to the Pacific overestimated the expected demand from the pausing of three-digit tariffs.
Washington and Beijing agreed to pause the escalating trade war on 14 May for 90 days with tariffs slaloming from a high of 145% to 30% on Chinese goods. Following that pause there was an expectation that shippers would take advantage of the hiatus and ship cargo at speed before August.
Xeneta chief analyst Peter Sand said: “Demand is expected to drop significantly, even if lower tariffs continue after the 90-day pause. Shippers have been frontloading imports throughout 2024 and early 2025 so inventories will be brimming once the current cargo rush is over.”
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